Bitcoin has fallen more than 3% in just a few hours, and most crypto traders are afraid that it will drop even further.The main cryptocurrency is trading around $ 15,960, and traders are desperately trying to avoid losses. So far, the price of bitcoin has fallen by more than 3% - which is it is very difficult to maintain such growth with such a high level of risk-a premium of almost 20% is typical. Traders are also concerned that the 20-week moving average has decreased, and technical indicators indicate that BTC may continue to trade sideways.How should investors interpret the current dynamics of BTC?The most important indicator for assessing the prospects is the 20-week moving average. This indicator provides a reliable assessment of long and short positions for almost all major crypto assets.On December 21, the indicator peaked at 21, which means that there were extremely high volumes at positions ranging from $ 10,500 to $ 20,000. A trader known as "Byzantine General" saidthat such a high premium has occurred several times in the past decade. When the premium decreases, this is it is a worrying sign. But when the premium increases, this is usually a positive indicator, as it shows that new buyers are adding leverage.The trend may still continue long-term holders have a small incentive to hold BTC longerAs bitcoin broke its all-time high of $ 20,000, there was a period of abnormality before the premium was released. The trader said that such an event is unlikely to happen again. He explained:"This is the first time that the 20-week moving average has exceeded $ 20,000 in almost 10 years. A 3% premium almost certainly isn't sustainable. I wouldn't expect 20-week MA to exceed $ 20,000 again."A prolonged period of abnormality is not a problem for BTCThe situation is different for bitcoin because it is concentrated in the hands of whales. The trader known as "Salsa Tekila" said that the market should be considered as a whole, not just bitcoin. He said:"A massive $ BTC glut has formed as many as 30-40 hot wallets. Not to mention all the wallets that are currently not moving. It will be difficult for the market to absorb all the inflows, but the glut is there. As long as they are not broken, they will stay in that range for a while more. The problem is that most of them are not actively broken."The glut of wallets that have not moved BTC for more than 3 years is alarming, but there is no indication that institutional investors are becoming more involved in the crypto market, making it more Mature. Selling pressure from institutions may be a short-term resistance, but whales continue to accumulate